Technical paper/Commodities
Floating exercise boundaries for American options in time-inhomogeneous models
A pricing model is extended to account for negative interest rates or convenience yields
On the contagion effect between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: a dynamic conditional correlation and spectral analysis
The authors present an empirical study concerning the volatility comovements between crude oil and agricultural commodities relative to global economic shocks such as Covid-19 and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Interpolating commodity futures prices with Kriging
A futures price’s term structure is built to account for trends and seasonality effects
Theory for optimizing capacitated commodity storage with case studies in natural gas
In this paper the author's develop theoretical concepts of optimal injecting and withdrawing for a capacitated commodity storage and give case studies in natural gas.
Forecasting natural gas price trends using random forest and support vector machine classifiers
In this paper, different machine learning approaches are applied to forecasting future yearly price trends in the natural gas Title Transfer Facility market in the Netherlands.
The impact of energy costs on industrial performance: identifying price and quantity effects in the aluminum industry using a data envelopment analysis approach
The authors build a frontier function model with technical and cost efficiency measures to assess the impact of energy costs on competitiveness in the aluminum industry, a heavy energy consumer, by identifying what may be attributed to price and quantity…
The effects of customer segmentation, borrower behaviors and analytical methods on the performance of credit scoring models in the agribusiness sector
The main aim of this study is to analyze the joint effects of customer segmentation, borrower characteristics and modeling techniques on the classification accuracy of a scoring model for agribusinesses.
Portfolio management of Commodity Trading Advisors with volatility-targeting
This paper shows analytically that a volatility-targeted allocation methodology improves the risk-adjusted performance of portfolios under a broad set of assumptions regarding the serial correlation of returns and the dependence of the expected Sharpe…
Technical uncertainty in real options with learning
This paper introduces a new approach for incorporating uncertainty in the decision to invest in a commodity reserve.
Dynamic delta option strategies in Nordic electricity markets
This paper examines how electricity options traded in the Nasdaq OMX Commodities Europe financial market are priced compared with their corresponding futures contracts.
Does the impact of exchange-traded funds flows on commodities prices involve stockpiling as a signature? An empirical investigation
This paper examines the relation between the flows into the three main commodity index exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the prices, inventory and term structure of four energy and twelve US-traded agricultural contracts.
Risk transformation of a zero-subsidy wind portfolio
Joaquin Narro analyses the hedging of a hypothetical zero-subsidy wind portfolio with base load products in the futures markets
Distributed ledger technology in payments, clearing and settlement
This paper examines how DLT can be used in the area of PCS, and identifies both the opportunities and challenges associated with its long-term implementation and adoption.
Intraday power storage and demand optionality
George Levy discusses the value of intraday power storage and demand optionality in UK power contracts
Using derivatives to forecast oil scenarios
Generating probability-weighted oil price scenarios from traded derivatives prices can help risk managers in the industry
Managing energy market volumetric risk
Krzysztof Wolyniec presents a volumetric risk management model for energy markets
A pairs trading strategy based on switching-regime volatility for commodity futures
A pairs trading strategy can give a larger Sharpe ratio with respect to classical methods
On the role of structural breaks in identifying the dynamic conditional linkages between stock and commodity markets
In this paper, the authors explore the time-varying linkages between two strategic commodities covering the energy sector (crude oil and natural gas) and the QE Al Rayan Islamic Index over the period March 15, 2011–December 25, 2014.
Commodity volatility, skew and inverse leverage effect
Krzysztof Wolyniec on leverage effects and volatility in commodity markets
A profit and loss attribution framework for physical and financial energy portfolios
A P&L attribution framework can improve the information available to energy traders
Two sides of the same coin: risk measures in the energy markets
This paper investigates whether there are existing common model features that yield consistently superior results under both VaR and ES risk metrics in the energy commodities markets.