The evolution of operational risk scenario analysis

This Risk.net white paper explains why moving from narrative loss estimates to exposure/occurrence/impact models produces clearer, more defensible decisions, and how artificial intelligence can industrialise challenge to make assumptions auditable and evidence-driven.

Featuring commentary from op risk experts at Barclays, Nomura and the ORX Association, the paper outlines practical steps to embed continuous challenge into workflows, strengthen governance and align scenario outcomes with risk appetite.

Among the insights:

• Why structured exposure/occurrence/impact scenarios improve traceability of loss drivers and decision quality
• How AI can automate evidence collection and provide disciplined, auditable challenge to expert assumptions
• Governance and model-validation implications for embedding continuous, systematic challenge into workflows.

The paper makes insightful reading for op risk managers, model validators, CROs, risk governance teams and fintech/AI leads seeking pragmatic, expert-backed guidance on modernising scenario analysis.

Download the paper to read the full analysis and expert commentary.