Probability of default (PD)

A bottom-up model with top-down dynamics

Yadong Li proposes a flexible, tractable and arbitrage-free bottom-up dynamic correlation modelling framework with a consistent stochastic recovery specification for multi-name credit derivatives. In this framework, the model’s spread dynamics can be…

Estimating credit contagion in a standard factor model

State-of-the-art credit risk portfolio models and the new Basel capital Accord consider only symmetric dependencies between borrowers in a portfolio, such as correlations. Recently, asymmetric dependencies have been introduced by Davis & Lo (2001), among…

Uncovering PD/LGD liaisons

Francisco Sanchez, Roland Ordovas, Elena Martinez and Manuel Vega consider the presence of correlation between default and recovery through the familiar variance of loss formula. Business cycle dependence permits a neat decomposition of the variance…

PD estimates for Basel II

One of the main issues banks will have to face to comply with the new Basel II internal ratings-based approach is to prove that the long-run average probabilities of default they assign to their clients, which will be used as the basis for regulatory…

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