Credit risk
Tracing credit contagion effects from corporates to the real estate sector
S&P Global Market Intelligence explores possible credit contagion effects from the corporate sector to real estate by using S&P Global Ratings’ research and underlying data to formulate clients’ own views on risks in the sector
Napier Park to increase investment in bank risk transfers
Hedge fund sees secular trend in lenders offloading credit risk, and plans to be part of it
ANZ’s end-period VAR spikes to highest in a decade
Interest rate risk drives 53% surge; market risk up A$1.6bn
Six Chinese banks set market risk records in Q1
Market RWAs spike 63% overall in first disclosures after rules update
How Man Group’s private credit arm keeps risk in check
Mid-market lending no place for weak covenants, flexible addbacks or payments in kind, says Varagon CEO
For a growing number of banks, synthetics are the real deal
More lenders want to use SRTs to offload credit risk, but old hands say they have a long road ahead
One-tenth of US banks exceed CRE concentration thresholds
US supervisors face operational challenge with constellation of 536 lenders above risk benchmarks at end-2023
Risk, portfolio margin, regulation: regtech to the rescue
This Whitepaper addresses the complexity of today’s risk environment for market professionals which can only be fully met with a regtec approach. Cost, competition, technology capability, and regulation influence and drive decision making.
Financial distress prediction with optimal decision trees based on the optimal sampling probability
The authors propose and validate a tree-based ensemble model for financial distress prediction which is demonstrated to outperform comparative models.
BofA, PNC lead Q1 rise in non-performing CRE loans
Commercial real estate write-offs also increased, driven by office loans
Default prediction based on a locally weighted dynamic ensemble model for imbalanced data
The authors put forward a locally weighted dynamic ensemble model which can predict financial institutions' default statues five years ahed.
Smaller US banks hold over half of CRE loans
Lenders under $50bn in assets reported record $1.7 trillion of exposures at end-2023
Credit risk management: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis
The authors undertake a literature review and bibliometric analysis of 774 credit risk research papers.
Characteristics of student loan credit recovery: evidence from a micro-level data set
The authors investigate delinquent student loans, identifying factors which influence the likelihood of recovery and proposing means to improve student loan credit recovery rates.
Risk transfer and the shift from camaraderie to competition
The risk transfer market could be moving into a more competitive, more transactional and, some fear, riskier cycle
Harsh judgements: why Stateside lenders are upping the Q-factor
As CRE stalls, qualitative adjustments are forming a larger part of US banks’ credit risk allowances
Traders eye negative CDS-bond basis
Changed market dynamic can be profitable for those firms able to capture it
Driving a modern operational resilience program
Strengthen your operational resilience processes, meet pertinent regulatory requirements in this space and enhance business continuity practices with the help of high-performance GRC technology
EU reporting regime a ‘hurdle’ for risk transfer deals, say investors
Onerous disclosure templates could deter US banks from marketing synthetic securitisations to European buyers
ECB raised Pillar 2 charges for just three CRE-heavy banks in latest SREP
Pfandbriefbank and Luminor saw largest increases across 106 banks subject to 2023 assessment
European regulators turn up the heat on IFRS 9 model overlays
After warnings from EBA and BoE, risk managers urge ‘soul-searching’ on post-model adjustments
First Citizens’ high-volatility CRE loans doubled last year
Rise in 150%-weighted class of exposures largest among 260 US lenders
Capital One’s credit exposure riskiness set to rise post-merger
Discover acquisition would push share of assets with 100% risk-weight to six-year high, pro forma analysis shows
Rabobank cuts back on ECL overlays
Improved backtesting performance reduces add-ons to allowances to lowest in five years