As monetary institutions rely greatly on economic and financial models for a wide array of applications, model validation has become progressively inventive within the field of risk. The Journal of Risk Model Validation focuses on the implementation and validation of risk models, and aims to provide a greater understanding of key issues including the empirical evaluation of existing models, pitfalls in model validation and the development of new methods. We also publish papers on back-testing. Our main field of application is in credit risk modelling but we are happy to consider any issues of risk model validation for any financial asset class.
The Journal of Risk Model Validation considers submissions in the form of research papers on the following, but not limited to, topics:
- Empirical model evaluation studies
- Backtesting studies
- Stress-testing studies
- New methods of model validation/backtesting/stress-testing
- Best practices in model development, deployment, production and maintenance
- Pitfalls in model validation techniques (all types of risk, forecasting, pricing and rating)
This paper proposes a loss function-based framework for the comparative measurement of the sensitivity of quantile downside risk measures to breaks in volatility or distribution.
This paper demonstrates how cash outflows due to credit lines can be modeled in a liquidity stress test.
In this paper, the authors show how one can use a certain class of models for modeling portfolios such as large corporates, banks and insurance companies.
A mean-reverting scenario design model to create lifetime forecasts and volatility assessments for retail loans
The authors of this paper develop a modeling framework that can incorporate mean-reverting scenarios into any scenario-based forecasting model.
Stress testing and model validation: application of the Bayesian approach to a credit risk portfolio
The authors of this paper develop a Bayesian-based credit risk stress-testing methodology.
Risk model validation for BRICS countries: a value-at-risk, expected shortfall and extreme value theory approach
The authors of this paper employ value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) as risk measures to assess the competency of several volatility models, based on the stock indexes of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)...
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review stress tests: is regression the only tool for loss projection?
The authors of this paper present a cross-sectional stress test analysis of major US banks.
This paper compares two methods of estimating LGD: a beta regression model and a multinomial logit (MNL) model.
Commodity value-at-risk modeling: comparing RiskMetrics, historic simulation and quantile regression
The authors of this paper investigate the risk modeling of commodities. They note that return distributions differ widely across different commodities, both in terms of tail fatness and skewness.
Stress testing and modeling of rating migration under the Vasicek model framework: empirical approaches and technical implementation
This paper is concerned with stress testing the Vasicek model by extending the correlation structure for nondefault ratings. Two models are proposed.
The author of this paper performs an analysis on a review of the equity stress parameter for Dutch pension funds.
The authors of this paper contend that recent evidence indicates that benchmarks have, over the last eleven years, exaggerated default risk for nonfinancial corporate entities.
The effect of introducing economic variables into credit scorecards: an example from invoice discounting
The interrelation of stock markets in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong and their constructional portfolio’s value-at-risk estimate
Forecasting value-at-risk for frontier stock market indexes using GARCH-type models and extreme value theory: model validation for dynamic models
Modeling systematic risk and point-in-time probability of default under the Vasicek asymptotic single-risk-factor model framework
Conditioned likelihood estimation of nonnormal distributions: risk estimation of credit portfolios in stressed markets