Technical paper/Regulation
Avoiding pro-cyclicality
David Cosandey and Urs Wolf argue that, for small to medium-sized enterprises, Basel II is pro-cyclical because of a double-counting of the risks. They present two main directions for possible capital rules that would circumvent the pro-cyclicality…
Estimating oil price volatility: a Garch model
Nikolai Sidorenko, Michael Baron and Michael Rosenberg present a general framework for modelling energy price volatility. These models explain the volatility persistence and clustering present in many commodity prices. In addition, they can incorporate…
Risk and reward at the speed of light: a new electricity price model
Samuel Bodily and Michel Del Buono propose a new electricity price model. The mean-reverting proportional volatility model matches important characteristics of power price dynamics where others, such as geometric Brownian motion, fall short
Exploring option pricing with mean-reversion jump diffusion
Yijun Du explores option pricing with a mean-reversion and jump-diffusion – or MJ – model, using Monte Carlo simulation. We find that jumps can increase the call price, a higher mean-reversion rate lowers the call price and the time to maturity has…
Using Bayesian networks to predict op risk
By combining qualitative and quantitative data, Bayesian networks offer the perfect solution to the compelling need for an integrated approach to operational risk management, say Martin Neil and Ed Tranham.
Modelling weather-sensitive electrical loads
Here Véronique Bugnion, Aram Sogomonian and Glen Swindle introduce a new methodology for forecasting and jointly simulating temperature and electrical load
At the end of the tail
When fat tails are present, extreme value theory provides a framework for estimating value-at-risk at higher confidence levels with greater accuracy than traditional Var methods. Naveen Andrews and Mark Thomas explain
Inside insider trading
Securities regulators need techniques to detect insider trading if it occurs and determine the extent of possible sanctions. Here, the author proposes a new probabilistic methodology particularly suited to illiquid markets.
Credit model evaluation
With the new Basel Capital Accord scheduled for implementation in 2005, banks are having to evaluate the credit scoring models that will enable them to meet the minimum standards for Basel’s internal ratings-based (IRB) approach. Selecting an appropriate…
Basel II - Rules and Models
The proposed operational risk charge remains one of the most contentious areas of the new Basel Accord. Carol Alexander reviews the current proposals in the context of various simple models, and argues that practical implementation will require the use…
Linear, yet attractive, Contour
Banks’ Potential Future Exposure models are at the core of the advanced EAD (Exposure At Default) approach to capital requirements for credit risk considered in the New Basel Capital Accord. Juan Cárdenas, Emmanuel Fruchard and Jean-François Picron look…
Pro-cyclicality in the new Basel Accord
Could Basel II worsen recessions? By backtesting the proposed capital rules to the last recession, D. Wilson Ervin and Tom Wilde argue that the increased risk sensitivity of loan portfolio regulatory capital in the new Accord could have unwelcome…
Probing granularity
The granularity adjustment, which adjusts risk weightings for credit portfolio diversification, is one of Basel II’s key modelling assumptions. Here, Tom Wilde uncovers a weakness in this assumption arising from the differences in the underlying credit…
Weighting for Risk
Basel has recognised that collateral and seniority give banks an advantage when an obligor defaults. Here, Jon Frye argues that the proposal may encourage banks to lend on the collateral – a practice that could threaten their own survival – and proposes…
Regulatory capital volatility
When the consultation period ends, what calibration of risk weights will Basel finally decide on? Here, Esa Jokivuolle and Samu Peura demonstrate that the ratings sensitivity of risk weights may require Basel to think more carefully about the…
IRB approach explained
At the end of this month, the consultation period for the new Basel Accord on bank capital will end. We have prepared a technical section this month devoted to various issues surrounding Basel II. In the first paper, Tom Wilde sheds light on the…
Stress tests and risk capital
For many financial institutions, "stress tests" are an important input into processes that set risk capital allocations. In the current regulatory environment, two distinct model-based approaches for setting regulatory capital requirements include stress…
Modeling and measuring operational risk
Recent operational risk events such as occurred at Barings, Daiwa, Sumitomo, and other institutions show the importance of measuring and controlling such operational risk. In this paper the authors present a quantitative operational risk measurement…