Scenarios fill the speculative gaps, op risk panel says

AMA risk management and op risk modelling cannot succeed by data alone

(l to r) Guenther Helbok, Giorgio Spriano, Andrew Sheen, Viet-Linh Nguyen

Scenario analysis still has a key role to play in operational risk modelling under the advanced measurement approach (AMA) to operational risk, the OpRisk Europe conference in London heard last week. Developing an AMA model without using scenario analysis – which is the case in the US where banks have to use the loss distribution approach only – could lead to events not being captured and therefore models being inaccurate. Andrew Sheen, head of operational risk use test, AMA, grou