WHO warns of bird flu pandemic

SWITZERLAND – The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned of the possibility of a human flu pandemic following continued outbreaks of the human strain of bird flu in Asia. In October Europe recorded its first cases of the avian form of the virus. Medical experts warn that a virus with the capacity to be transmitted from person to person, through mutation of the avian influenza virus, is "a distinct possibility and could lead to a global pandemic".

Experts at the WHO state that they are not certain whether a pandemic will break out in the coming weeks, months, or even years, but that if a pandemic does occur, there will be hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths worldwide.

However the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is taking a far calmer approach, stating that the bird flu risk to humans is close to zero. "The risk for citizens to have this virus is minimal. This virus is not yet adapted to humans, it is not capable of human-to-human transmission and until that happens this will not be a pandemic strain. For the time being there is no reason to panic in Europe," said Zsuzsanna Jakab, head of the ECDC, in mid-October.

But in the meantime, financial experts are readying themselves for such a pandemic. Many international financial institutions with offices in Hong Kong remember only too well the outbreak of Sars there in 2003, which led to around 300 deaths and resulted in key changes to business continuity plans. In the UK, London’s Evening Standard newspaper reported in mid-October that some City firms were stocking the Tamiflu drug for key employees, just in case.

According to a spokesperson for UK regulator the Financial Services Authority (FSA): "We require firms to assess and manage their response to any potential risks to their business effectiveness. Risk management forms a regular part of supervisors’ discussions with the firms they regulate and we have encouraged firms to ensure that their current planning takes into account the potential risk of pandemic flu. Guidance provided by the appropriate authorities will assist firms in making these assessments."

The spokesperson adds: "In the event of an actual incident, it would be normal practice for firms’ supervisors at the FSA to contact them in order to assess the collective impact on the financial sector."

Meanwhile, in the US bird flu control measures have been announced by President George W. Bush, who has said aggressive action will be needed to prevent a potentially disastrous US outbreak of the disease. "One option is the use of a military that’s able to plan and move," he said in a press conference in early October. "So that’s why I put it on the table. I think it’s an important debate for Congress to have." OpRisk

Information on bird flu from the UK government is available at:

http://www.dh.gov.uk/PolicyAndGuidance/EmergencyPlanning/PandemicFlu/fs/en

Information from US authorities is located at:

http://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/Bird_flu.htm