The unreliability of oil price forecasting

Oil price forecasts are notoriously unreliable, making life difficult for energy market participants attempting to manage their risks. Alexander Osipovich explores the reasons why analysts struggle to predict future prices

Oil price forecasting

Oil analysts face a thankless task. Their forecasts for the price of crude are closely watched by traders, risk managers and the public at large. Yet research shows their predictions are usually inaccurate, and some critics scorn the idea that oil prices can be forecast at all.

“Oil experts, economists and government officials who have attempted in recent years to predict future demand and prices for oil have had only marginally better success than those who foretell the advent of earthquakes or

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@risk.net or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.risk.net/subscribe

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Risk.net? View our subscription options

CTRM systems 2024: market update and vendor landscape

A Chartis report on commodity trading and risk management systems that considers its different applications and addresses the market and vendor dynamics to determine the long-term and structural impacts of the overarching market evolution on the…

Chartis Energy50 2023

The latest iteration of Chartis' Energy50 2023 ranking and report considers the key issues in today’s energy space, and assesses the vendors operating within it

Most read articles loading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Risk.net account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here