Risk glossary


Value-at-risk (VaR)

The VaR of a portfolio is the worst loss expected to be suffered over a given period of time with a given probability. The time period is known as the holding period, and the probability is known as the confidence interval. VaR is not an estimate of the worst possible loss, but the largest likely loss. For example, a firm might estimate its VaR over 10 days to be $100 million, with a confidence interval of 95%. This would mean there is a one-in-20 (5%) chance of a loss larger than $100 million in the next 10 days.

In order to calculate VaR, a firm must model both the way the relevant market factors will change over the holding period and the way, if any, these changes are correlated between market factors. It must then evaluate the potential effects of these changes on its portfolio at the desired level of consolidation (by asset class, group or business line, for example).

* see credit value-at-risk

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