Risk managers: beware conventional 'wisdom'

Why the consensus view so often fails to predict seismic shocks

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A few years ago, Queen Elizabeth of the UK famously asked a group of eminent experts gathered at the London School of Economics about the Great Recession of the last decade. "It's awful – why did nobody see it coming?"

The same question may be asked today about recent events such as Brexit or Donald Trump's successful bid to become the next President of the United States – events of critical importance to the world economy and geopolitical balance of power that an overwhelming majority of analy