Finding certainty in uncertainty

blaisepascalold

A shift in risk management behaviour is observed during the kind of serious economic downturn now being experienced. People replace their belief in quantitative probability distributions with a less concrete acknowledgement of ‘uncertainty’. This leads to a set of scenarios that aims to represent the most relevant uncertain future states of the economy. Scenarios based on (recent) past frequency distributions do not determine the view on risk; instead the experience of practised men is the key i