No increased possibility of 2014 equity correction

Unpredictable equity

market volatility

Mean-reverting behavior is a topic much discussed in financial markets and has spawned all manner of models and trading strategies in a wide variety of asset classes. This behaviour appeals to our intuitive notion that what goes up must come down, and that extreme market moves must be followed by corrections. Given the banner year for worldwide equities in 2013 (S&P 500 up 29.6%; FTSE up 14.4%; Nikkei up 57%), it’s tempting to subscribe to the notion that the risk of a down year in