Has there been excessive speculation in the US oil futures markets?
In October 2008 the EDHEC Risk and Asset Research Centre appealed for the evaluation of the oil futures markets to be based on a careful examination of empirical data. In the EDHEC-Risk paper The Oil Markets: Let the Data Speak for Itself,1 we noted that there were numerous plausible explanations for the oil-price rally that culminated in July 2008, but that many areas of data uncertainty remained, making definitive conclusions on this matter conditional on increased transparency in these markets.
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Abstract/Summary
Even though there were numerous plausible explanations for the oil-price rally that culminated in July 2008, there remains much uncertainty on how much to ascribe this rally to speculation, given the lack of transparency in the global oil markets. Was there excessive speculation in the oil markets?
Many facets of the world oil markets are, indeed, too opaque, including future productive capacity estimates from important suppliers, inventory statistics from
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