Technical paper
Robust pricing and hedging via neural stochastic differential equations
The authors propose a model called neural SDE and demonstrate how this model can make it possible to find robust bounds for the prices of derivatives and the corresponding hedging strategies.
Internet financial risk assessment in China based on a particle swarm optimization–analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
The authors propose a comprehensive evaluation system to index internet financial risk, based on the identification of China's internet financial risk.
CMS pricing: overdue annuities
An RFR-based pricing and risk management model for CMS and its derivatives is presented
Allocating and forecasting changes in risk
This paper considers time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components.
Insurance institutional shareholding and banking systemic risk contagion: an empirical study based on a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator–vector autoregression high-dimensional network
The authors use a LASSO-VAR method and generalized variance decomposition to measure the systemic risk contagion effect of Chinese-listed banks.
The impacts of financial and macroeconomic factors on financial stability in emerging countries: evidence from Turkey’s nonperforming loans
The authors assess the impacts of financial and macroeconomic factors on financial stability in emerging economies, using Turkey's banking sector in the period 2005 Q1 to 2020 Q3 as their example.
Asymmetric risk spillovers between oil and the Chinese stock market: a Beta-skew-t-EGARCH-EVT-copula approach
The author uses the marginal expected shortfall method alongside the Beta-skew-t-exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-extreme value theory model and the CoVaR model to investigate risk spillover between the crude oil…
Least squares Monte Carlo methods in stochastic Volterra rough volatility models
The authors offer a VIX pricing algorithm for stochastic Volterra rough volatility models where the volatility is dependent of the vol-of-vol which reproduces key features of real-world data.
Collateralised exposure modelling: bridging the gap risk
Concentration, leverage and correlations may affect a collateralised equity swap portfolio
Pricing in the gap risk of mini-futures
Mini-futures need to be priced and hedged taking sudden jumps into account
Pricing options using expected profit and loss measures
The authors investigate the pricing of options using an EP-EL approach, finding that this methodology generates large amounts of useful information for option traders.
Dynamic rebalancing of a risk parity investment portfolio
The authors examine the All-Weather portfolio in relation to other popular portfolios and investigate the impact of various static and dynamic portfolio-rebalancing strategies on the All-Weather portfolio.
Dynamic signal selection strategies
The authors use eight models of pairwise dependency to select predictors that offer a high level of dependency in stock returns.
Trading the vol-of-vol risk premium
Applications of the vol-of-vol parameter for cross-asset derivatives are presented
Machine learning for categorization of operational risk events using textual description
The authors summarise ways that machine learning can help categorize textual descriptions of operational loss events into Basel II event types.
Systemic operational risk in the Australian banking system: the Royal Commission
The author investigates the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry and its most prominent cases, as well as detailing examples of operational risk events that the commission did not cover.
Looking beyond SA-CCR
An alternative calculation of exposure at default that handles complex portfolios is presented
Forecasting the loss given default of bank loans with a hybrid multilayer LGD model by extending multidimensional signals
The authors employ signaling theory and machine learning methods to investigate loss given default predictions of commercial banks and propose a method to improve the accuracy of these predictions.
Performance validation of representative sample-balancing methods in loan credit-scoring scenarios
The authors validate 12 of the most representative sample-balancing methods used for credit-scoring models, finding that a combined SMOTE and Editor Nearest Neighbor method is optimal.
Scenario design for macrofinancial stress testing
The author presents an empirical approach to scenario design for selecting a stress scenario for international macrofinancial variables and compares this approach with a historical scenario approach.
Modeling maxima with a regime-switching Fréchet model
The authors identify a regime-switching Fréchet model which can be used to identify the behavior of extreme values in financial series.
Assessing systemic fragility: a probabilistic perspective
Using new measure of systemic fragility, the author ranks euro area banks and sovereigns and according to their systemic risk contribution.
Asset allocation with inverse reinforcement learning
Using reinforcement learning to help replicate asset managers' allocation strategy
Falling use of cash and population age structure
The authors investigate the reduction of cash use across 25 countries, using three means of measurement and argue that one method is more appropriate than the others.