Technical paper
Incremental wind energy development in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator electricity markets of the United States
The authors offer an estimate of how much incremental wind energy development could happen while avoiding inadequate investment incentives for wind and natural-gas-fired generation in day-ahead and real-time markets.
An empirical study of the contrarian strategy against US equities in the Japanese market
This paper investigates the contrarian strategy against US equities, finding that for samples where the previous day's daily return on the S&P 500 is positive (negative), the next day's intraday returns on Japanese stock-index futures will be the inverse…
Dynamic connectedness between energy markets and cryptocurrencies: evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic
Following the Covid-19 pandemic, the authors use the time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach to to explore the connectedness between cryptocurrencies and international energy markets from 2018 to 2021.
What have we learned from 20 million historical US stock data?
The author offers a statistical characterization of the US stock market from January 3, 1995 to June 11, 2021.
Optimal allocation to cryptocurrencies in diversified portfolios
Asset allocation methods assign positive weights to cryptos in diversified portfolios
Refined analysis of the no-butterfly-arbitrage domain for SSVI slices
The authors investigate the surface SVI model with three with three parameters, applying the SVI results to give the nobutterfly- arbitrage domain
Estimating the impact of climate change on credit risk
The author investigates the relationship between climate change and credit risk characteristics of individual obligors and portfolios of credit obligations.
Illustrative industry architecture to mitigate potential fragmentation across a central bank digital currency and commercial bank money
The authors put forward a means to mitigate the fragmentation risk to payments markets and retail deposits presented by the adoption of CBDCs.
Research on the premium for the joint lower-tail risk of liquidity and investor sentiment
The authors put forward the concept of the joint lower-tail risk of liquidity and investor sentiment and investigate the issue of lower-tail risk premiums in the Chinese stock market.
Automatic adjoint differentiation for special functions involving expectations
The authors put forward AAD algorithms for functions involving expectations and use their technique to calibrate European options.
Extremes of extremes: risk assessment for very small samples with an exemplary application for cryptocurrency returns
The authors propose a means to carry out worst-case risk assessments from small sample sizes and demonstrate it using cryptocurrency returns as an example.
Getting more for less: better A / B testing via causal regularisation
A causal machine learning algorithm is used to estimate trades’ price impact
Transmission of cyber risk through the Canadian wholesale payment system
The authors investigate how a paralyzing cyber attack on one or more banks would spread to other banks through the Canadian wholesale payment system and simulate various scenarios, evaluating the total disruption to the payment system.
A new automated model validation tool for financial institutions
The authors put forward a novel automated validation tool, based on US Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency regulatory guidance, which is used to to validate predictive models for financial organizations.
Analytic risk-free rates option pricing with smile and skew
An arbitrage-free short-rate model for backward-looking compounded rates is presented
Overfitting in portfolio optimization
The authors measure the performance of sample-based rolling-window neural network (NN) portfolio optimization strategies and demonstrate that correctly set up NN-based strategies can outperform the 1/N strategy.
The importance of being scrambled: supercharged quasi-Monte Carlo
The authors propose a randomized quasi-Monte Carlo method which outperforms both the Monte Carlo and standard quasi-Monte Carlo methods.
How to choose the dependence types in operational risk measurement? A method considering strength, sensitivity and simplicity
The authors put forward a method for banks to choose the most appropriate dependence type based on an empirical analysis of the Chinese Operational Loss Database.
Construction of hypothetical scenarios for central counterparty stress tests using vine copulas
Using the vine copula, the authors put forward a nonparametric means to generate and/or validate hypothetical stress scenarios.
Operational risk and regulatory capital: do public and private banks differ?
The authors investigate relationships between operational risk and regulatory capital in Indian public and private banks.
A text analysis of operational risk loss descriptions
The authors put forward a workflow for using text analysis to identify underlying risks in operational risk event descriptions.
Smile-consistent basket skew
An analytic approximation for the implied volatility surface of basket options is introduced
On the mitigation of valuation uncertainty risk: the importance of a robust proxy for the “cumulative state of market incompleteness”
The author put forwards a means to mitigate asset risk and valuation uncertainty risk which relies on investors conditioning valuations of new assets on a dynamically evolving intertemporal mechanism
Integrating text mining and analytic hierarchy process risk assessment with knowledge graphs for operational risk analysis
This paper proposes a new method, entitled the risk-based knowledge graph, which is designed to make analysis of safety records from an operational risk perspective easier and more efficient.