Models of good behaviour

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Energy price forecasting has always been a hazardous business, but for those in the power sector it must have often seemed like a minus-sum game. Since global market deregulation in the 1990s, one of the biggest growth industries has been the supply of analytical solutions and software to develop ever-more-sophisticated models to illustrate the stochastic behaviour1 of power prices. But none of them predicted the California crisis or last September’s 30% drop in UK wholesale market p

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