Oil prices collapse: assessing the ‘known unknowns’

Vincent Kaminski explores the potential dangers lurking in oil markets

Vincent Kaminski
Vincent Kaminski

The history of commodity markets is littered with exceptionally poor forecasts of oil prices, including one bad forecast of my own. I should have known better and remembered where Italian poet Dante Alighieri placed the diviners, astrologers and others with enough audacity to attempt predictions of the future: in the eighth circle of hell, with their heads turned backwards and tears flowing down their backs.

Forecasting oil prices is a losing game because we are dealing with a very complex and i