Carbon analysts gauge recession impact

The carbon market will feel the effects of the global recession, with the EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) shortfall set to drop dramatically, industry experts predict.

IDEAcarbon, a carbon research firm, reduced its estimate for EU emission allowance (EUA) shortfalls to 115 million tonnes per year between 2008-12, which is a 44% drop from estimates made in December 2007.

The forecast says that EU industrial output will grow at 1% in 2008, and shrink by 0.7% in 2009. "This will reduce the level