Technical paper/Procyclicality
How confident are we of margin model procyclicality measurements?
This paper investigates procyclicality models, bringing attention to that fact that typical measures of model responsiveness are random variables and impacted by uncertainty.
Better anti-procyclicality? From a critical assessment of anti-procyclicality tools to regulatory recommendations
Mitigating margin procyclicality: the effectiveness of anti-procyclicality measures during the Covid-19 stress event
Procyclicality of central counterparty margin models: systemic problems need systemic approaches
A cost–benefit analysis of anti-procyclicality: analyzing approaches to procyclicality reduction in central counterparty initial margin models
In this paper, the authors suggest how margin setters and policy makers might measure procyclicality and target particular levels of it by recalibrating parameters in a margin model to reduce its procyclicality or by applying an anti-procyclicality tool.
Procyclicality control in risk-based margin models
This paper revisits the procyclicality issue in risk-based margin models and provides additional insight on procyclicality mitigation techniques.
Procyclicality mitigation for initial margin models with asymmetric volatility
In this paper, we explore the procyclicality of initial margin requirements based on VaR volatility models.We suggest procyclicality can be reduced using a three-regime model rather than using ad hoc tools.
Current expected credit loss procyclicality: it depends on the model
This work looks at a wide range of models to test the degree to which CECL is procyclical for different types of model.
Central counterparty anti-procyclicality tools: a closer assessment
This paper investigates whether the substantial focus placed on the procyclicality of initial margin reflects both the original concerns at the time of the 2007-8 financial crisis and the intrinsic 'modus operandi' of CCPs.
Procyclicality of capital and portfolio segmentation in the advanced internal ratings-based framework: an application to mortgage portfolios
This paper investigates the procyclicality of capital in the advanced internal ratings based (A-IRB) Basel approach for retail portfolios, and identifies the fundamental assumptions required for stable A-IRB risk weights over the economic cycle.
Avoiding pro-cyclicality
David Cosandey and Urs Wolf argue that, for small to medium-sized enterprises, Basel II is pro-cyclical because of a double-counting of the risks. They present two main directions for possible capital rules that would circumvent the pro-cyclicality…
Pro-cyclicality in the new Basel Accord
Could Basel II worsen recessions? By backtesting the proposed capital rules to the last recession, D. Wilson Ervin and Tom Wilde argue that the increased risk sensitivity of loan portfolio regulatory capital in the new Accord could have unwelcome…