Risk Quantum/Northern Trust
US arms of Credit Suisse, SMBC stumble on VAR
Breaches of trading forecasts in Q1 result in higher value-at-risk multipliers for the duo
Big US banks boost cash holdings by nearly 8% in Q1
Dash for cash props up HQLAs as AFS securities drop to six-year low
At US banks, share of HTM securities ticks up in Q1
Despite liquidity squeeze, regional banks increased proportion to a six-year high
US regionals remain laggards on EVE measure
Majority of lenders in Q1 did not report key metric that could have detected SVB’s risks
As rates rose, KeyBank unwound 94% of pay-fixed swaps
Sale of AFS hedges left book exposed throughout late 2022, much as at ill-fated SVB
US banks vulnerable to losses if HTM securities need to be sold
Overall mark-to-market value $300bn lower than amortised cost across 30 banks
HTM securities hit $2.5trn at US banks in 2022
BofA, First Foundation and Wells Fargo reported largest share of HTM to total securities behind SVB
US regional banks hold smaller proportion of high quality assets
Share of Level 1 assets at Capital One, Truist, US Bancorp lowest across US banks subject to LCR
At US banks, less than 50% of liquid assets classified as AFS
Goldman Sachs reported smallest proportion relative to HQLAs across US banks subject to LCR
Like SVB, five other US lenders saw negative NII growth in 2022
Ally, Customers, First Foundation, Morgan Stanley and PacWest were pressured by rising rates
US banks’ VAR breaches up 2.5x in 2022
‘Hypothetical’ one-day losses exceeded VAR on 55 occasions, as losing trading days prevail
Contrarian Goldman grew fair-value bond book in 2022
Held-to-maturity securities balloon, but bank also adds mark-to-market Treasuries as others curtail them