Adjusting VAR to correct sample volatility bias
The calculation of value-at-risk often relies on using a sample variance for that of the forward-looking distribution. However, using an unbiased estimate of variance leads to biased estimates of VAR. David Frank proposes an adjustment that can be easily retrofitted into existing models to correct for this bias
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE PDF
In this article, we propose a simple adjustment that can be used when computing value-at-risk (RiskMetrics Group 1996) if a sample standard deviation of returns rather than the true standard deviation is employed. Using the sample standard deviation as if it were the true standard deviation (the usual procedure) results in VAR estimates that are biased downwards. We
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@risk.net or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.risk.net/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
More on Risk management
What futures and options say about the cost of war
Spot prices reveal major disruption, futures indicate this will pass, options imply ongoing instability
CME-FICC cross-netting terms fuel clashes
Hedge funds worried by CCP powers to suspend arrangement; clearing members say it’s standard practice
For collateral, can TINA become TIA?
US Treasuries’ dominance as collateral in repo and derivatives is no longer set in stone, argues economist
A Hormuz tipping point may be days away
Agent-based model suggests delays and shortages likely to accelerate after four weeks
Op risk data: HK gets tough on takeover in $200m takedown
Also: Bank staff steal state funds in India; Vanguard settles US net zero lawsuit. Data by ORX News
CRO view: Emerging risks in the age of AI
The risk agenda is shifting beyond market and credit volatility towards operational resilience, AI governance and culture
Interest rate crosswinds buffet IRRBB teams
Political intervention and rapid-fire law changes are skewering bank models for forecasting cashflows
FRTB internal models: quo vadis?
Two risk experts explore how to adjust the FRTB framework to promote internal model usage
