Technical paper/Credit risk
Hedge backtesting for model validation
Derivatives pricing and expected exposure models must be backtested as a basic regulatory requirement. But what does this mean exactly, and how can it be used to reserve against model risk? Lee Jackson introduces a general backtesting framework for…
Cutting Edge introduction: systematic systematic factor models
Credit factor models tend to obscure the economics in favour of tractability – and this puts them at odds with rigorous arbitrage-free martingale pricing methods. To resolve this, quants are looking more closely at what a systematic risk factor actually…
Systematic risk factors redefined
Systematic risk factors redefined
Exposure under systemic impact
Wrong-way risk (WWR) behaves differently for exposures to systemically important counterparties because their default has the potential to move financial markets before the close-out. Michael Pykhtin and Alexander Sokol show how the traditional exposure…
Exposure under systemic impact
Exposure under systemic impact
Wrong-way risk, credit and funding
The risk of exposure and counterparty default probability both increasing – so-called wrong-way risk – is usually understood in terms of the correlation between the two variables. But this approach is focused more on the centre of the distribution, and…
Wrong-way risk, credit and funding
The risk of exposure and counterparty default probability both increasing – so-called wrong-way risk – is usually understood in terms of the correlation between the two variables. But this approach focuses more on the centre of the distribution. This…
Cutting Edge introduction: Wrong-way risk and the limits of correlation
Traditional models for wrong-way risk focus on the correlation between default and exposure – a blunt tool for a tail risk. Alternatives are thin on the ground, but a scenario-based approach may provide some fresh insight. Laurie Carver introduces this…
DVA for assets
DVA for assets
Wrong-way risk, credit and funding
Wrong-way risk, credit and funding
Cutting Edge introduction: Goodwill for DVA
Goodwill blunting