Technical paper/Foreign exchange
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Exceptional operational risks: Three myths debunked
Are there common features among exceptional operational risks beyond their defining characteristics of rarity and severe consequences?
Risk management based on stochastic volatility
Risk management approaches that do not incorporate randomly changing volatility tend to under- or overestimate the risk, depending on current market conditions. We show how some popular stochastic volatility models in combination with the hyperbolic…
Testing rating accuracy
As Basel II approaches the implementation stage, regulators have identified internal ratings validation as a key challenge for banks using this approach. Here, Bernd Engelmann, Evelyn Hayden and Dirk Tasche build upon previous research showing how to use…
Fallacies about the effects of market risk management systems
This paper takes another look at allegations that risk management systems have contributed to increased volatility in financial markets, with the particular example of the summer of 1998. The paper also provides new evidence on the potential effect of…
Using Bayesian networks to predict op risk
By combining qualitative and quantitative data, Bayesian networks offer the perfect solution to the compelling need for an integrated approach to operational risk management, say Martin Neil and Ed Tranham.
Credit risk in asset securitisations: an analytical model
How much capital should banks reserve against investments in portfolio securitisations? Asserting that recent proposals on this subject by Basel are inconsistent, Michael Pykhtin and Ashish Dev propose a new analytical model suitable for tranches of…
Credit model evaluation
With the new Basel Capital Accord scheduled for implementation in 2005, banks are having to evaluate the credit scoring models that will enable them to meet the minimum standards for Basel’s internal ratings-based (IRB) approach. Selecting an appropriate…
Linear, yet attractive, Contour
Banks’ Potential Future Exposure models are at the core of the advanced EAD (Exposure At Default) approach to capital requirements for credit risk considered in the New Basel Capital Accord. Juan Cárdenas, Emmanuel Fruchard and Jean-François Picron look…
Pro-cyclicality in the new Basel Accord
Could Basel II worsen recessions? By backtesting the proposed capital rules to the last recession, D. Wilson Ervin and Tom Wilde argue that the increased risk sensitivity of loan portfolio regulatory capital in the new Accord could have unwelcome…
Reconciling ratings
How should internal credit ratings be calibrated to long-term default rates? This multibillion-dollar question is at the heart of the debate over Basel’s IRB approach. In thisarticle, Stefan Blochwitz and Stefan Hohl use simulations to demonstrate wide…
Weighting for Risk
Basel has recognised that collateral and seniority give banks an advantage when an obligor defaults. Here, Jon Frye argues that the proposal may encourage banks to lend on the collateral – a practice that could threaten their own survival – and proposes…
Regulatory capital volatility
When the consultation period ends, what calibration of risk weights will Basel finally decide on? Here, Esa Jokivuolle and Samu Peura demonstrate that the ratings sensitivity of risk weights may require Basel to think more carefully about the…
Stress tests and risk capital
For many financial institutions, "stress tests" are an important input into processes that set risk capital allocations. In the current regulatory environment, two distinct model-based approaches for setting regulatory capital requirements include stress…
Modeling and measuring operational risk
Recent operational risk events such as occurred at Barings, Daiwa, Sumitomo, and other institutions show the importance of measuring and controlling such operational risk. In this paper the authors present a quantitative operational risk measurement…