Technical paper/Commodities
Robust valuation and hedging of tolling agreements and physical assets
Flexible, martingale duality-based method provides reliable valuation
Commodity leveraged ETFs: Tracking errors, volatility decay and trading strategies
Tracking performance of ETFs is examined, with a focus on volatility decay
Quant ideas: Liquidity in commodity risk management
Liquidity plays a vastly underappreciated role in commodity markets
Cutting edge: Incorporating forex volatility into commodity spread option pricing
Spread option pricing: importance of forex risk factors illustrated
Classic cutting edge: Swing options and the quest for valuation
Energy Risk presents a classic paper on swing options pricing by Patrick Jaillet, Ehud Ronn and Stathis Tompaidis, which was first published in 1998. It introduced the so-called binomial forest method, which was influential in the development of pricing…
Cutting edge: Modelling dependence of price spikes in Australian electricity markets
The deregulation of Australian electricity markets has brought several challenges, including the possibility of price spikes, which expose market participants to significant risks. As Adebayo Aderounmu and Rodney Wolff outline, these spikes are hard to…
Cutting edge: Valuation and optimal hedging of storage contracts in incomplete gas markets
In this paper, Magnus Wobben, Tilman Huhne, Yuri Ivanov and Sebastian Hanneken examine the impact of market incompleteness on the valuation of gas storage contracts. In contrast to prior research, their proposed valuation framework accounts for the…
Cutting edge: Electricity contract risk with portfolio effects
The incremental risk of including electricity contracts in a portfolio is computed by George Levy using a Monte Carlo regime-switching approach. The volume and price processes are modelled using empirical distributions and correlation is captured via a…
Cutting edge: Impact of execution behaviour on valuation of optional financial contracts
Expected payoff maximisation is a commonly assumed strategy in valuation. S Hossein Hosseini, Qiaoyan Bian, Jay Chen and John Jiang suggest that execution strategies may vary due to complex option structures and their resulting uncertainties. Using a…
Applied risk management series: Venturing beyond VAR
Venturing beyond historical VAR
Cutting edge: Correlation functions in the crude oil and natural gas futures markets
Given the importance of the crude oil and natural gas futures markets, the intra-market correlations in these markets play an important role in pricing, hedging and managing the risks of energy portfolios. This paper by Ehud Ronn contributes to the…
Cutting edge: Hedging price and volumetric risks of fixed-price load-serving contracts in natural gas markets
Cutting edge: Hedging price and volumetric risks of fixed-price load-serving contracts in natural gas markets
Cutting edge: Marketing of renewable energy in the German market
Marketing of renewable energy - The German market: a case study
Cutting edge: valuing and dynamically hedging natural gas storage
Hedging the extrinsic value of a natural gas storage
Weather risk: gauging the exposure
There is now an array of instruments available to hedge weather exposure, but evaluating that exposure is far harder than quantifying standard exposures such as commodity price risk. Garth Renne and Shaun Hatch discuss approaches to analysing wind and…
Cutting edge technical: Carbon derivatives pricing
Carbon derivatives pricing: an arbitrageable market
Cutting edge: Modelling the correlation function in the crude-oil futures market
Energy market participants often require the computation of coefficients of correlation in a multi-asset portfolio. Addressing crude oil futures contracts, Ehud Ronn proposes and implements a simple procedure to reduce the cross-maturity correlations in…
Masterclass: Valuing generation assets using Monte Carlo simulation
In this Masterclass, Les Clewlow, James Lujun Liu, Doug Meador, Ron Sobey and Chris Strickland describe the use of Monte Carlo methods for valuing generation assets in more detail. In particular, they discuss the appropriate price models to use and how…
Improving annuity pricing with address data
Technical papers
Taking stock of Pillar II
Technical papers
The true cost of no-cost mortgages
Banks offering no-cost mortgages have been accused of hiding the real cost of the loan from borrowers. But as Andrew Kalotay and Jinghua Qian explain, lenders can also run into problems if they fail to calculate correctly the prepayment behaviour of…