Subject: A vol eruption, a basis trade deflation, and mixed views on prediction

7 DAYS IN 60 SECONDS
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THIS WEEK'S TOP STORIES
Markets
How vol eruption blew up Goldman’s rates book
Dealers were short payer skew from corporate and hedge fund flows. Then came the Iran war.
15 Jun 2026   |  Feature
Markets
Treasury basis trade loses its allure as returns shrink
Tight spreads and rising funding costs are pushing the cash-futures basis trade out of favour
15 Jun 2026   |  News
Regulation
Double, but no trouble? CVA capital hit may lack clout
Industry opinion mixed around Basel III endgame derivatives charge
12 Jun 2026   |  Feature
Markets
Will Kalshi and Polymarket win over prop shops? Don’t bet on it.
A few market-makers – Jump Trading and Susquehanna among them – are dabbling in prediction markets but most are holding off due to patchy liquidity and legal uncertainty
17 Jun 2026   |  Feature
Regulation
US FRTB glitch could spit out negative capital charges
Effort to recognise risk diversification between IMA and standardised approach went too far
18 Jun 2026   |  News
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STAT OF THE WEEK

Top US banks load up on derivatives in Q1

The first quarter of 2026 roiled the derivatives portfolios of top US banks, with credit, commodity and interest rate instruments surging. Credit default swap notionals surged both in terms of instruments sold and purchased, with rises of 28.2% and 23.7% to $2.97 trillion and $3.22 trillion, respectively, across the eight US global systemically important banks. These marked the highest levels since 2017.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Hard day’s night: Kalshi’s round-the-clock enforcement head

“I’ve dealt with clients who want to live in a universe where they don’t think regulations should apply to them at all, and that’s very much not the ethos at Kalshi” – Robert DeNault, Kalshi

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