Risk Quantum/First Foundation
At some US regionals, CRE loans eclipse tangible equity by up to 7x
Valley National, NYCB and First Foundation the most levered in a sample of 30 banks
First Citizens leads regional bank rush for riskless assets
Share of 0% risk-weighted assets increases at small banks for first time in seven quarters
At US banks, share of HTM securities ticks up in Q1
Despite liquidity squeeze, regional banks increased proportion to a six-year high
US regionals remain laggards on EVE measure
Majority of lenders in Q1 did not report key metric that could have detected SVB’s risks
Five regional banks predict lower income from higher rates
IRRBB simulations show lending revenue shrinking as Fed policy gets tighter
US banks vulnerable to losses if HTM securities need to be sold
Overall mark-to-market value $300bn lower than amortised cost across 30 banks
HTM securities hit $2.5trn at US banks in 2022
BofA, First Foundation and Wells Fargo reported largest share of HTM to total securities behind SVB
At regional US banks, BTFP-eligible securities top $300bn
Assets classified as held-to-maturity made up less than 19% of aggregate securities portfolios in 2022