Energy Risk/Technical paper
Quant ideas: Liquidity in commodity risk management
Liquidity plays a vastly underappreciated role in commodity markets
Cutting edge: Incorporating forex volatility into commodity spread option pricing
Spread option pricing: importance of forex risk factors illustrated
Classic cutting edge: Swing options and the quest for valuation
Energy Risk presents a classic paper on swing options pricing by Patrick Jaillet, Ehud Ronn and Stathis Tompaidis, which was first published in 1998. It introduced the so-called binomial forest method, which was influential in the development of pricing…
Cutting edge: Modelling dependence of price spikes in Australian electricity markets
The deregulation of Australian electricity markets has brought several challenges, including the possibility of price spikes, which expose market participants to significant risks. As Adebayo Aderounmu and Rodney Wolff outline, these spikes are hard to…
Cutting edge: Valuation and optimal hedging of storage contracts in incomplete gas markets
In this paper, Magnus Wobben, Tilman Huhne, Yuri Ivanov and Sebastian Hanneken examine the impact of market incompleteness on the valuation of gas storage contracts. In contrast to prior research, their proposed valuation framework accounts for the…
Cutting edge: Electricity contract risk with portfolio effects
The incremental risk of including electricity contracts in a portfolio is computed by George Levy using a Monte Carlo regime-switching approach. The volume and price processes are modelled using empirical distributions and correlation is captured via a…
Cutting edge: Impact of execution behaviour on valuation of optional financial contracts
Expected payoff maximisation is a commonly assumed strategy in valuation. S Hossein Hosseini, Qiaoyan Bian, Jay Chen and John Jiang suggest that execution strategies may vary due to complex option structures and their resulting uncertainties. Using a…
Applied risk management series: Venturing beyond VAR
Venturing beyond historical VAR
Cutting edge: Correlation functions in the crude oil and natural gas futures markets
Given the importance of the crude oil and natural gas futures markets, the intra-market correlations in these markets play an important role in pricing, hedging and managing the risks of energy portfolios. This paper by Ehud Ronn contributes to the…
Cutting edge: Hedging price and volumetric risks of fixed-price load-serving contracts in natural gas markets
Cutting edge: Hedging price and volumetric risks of fixed-price load-serving contracts in natural gas markets
Cutting edge: Jamshidian decomposition for pricing European energy commodity swaptions
Cutting edge: Jamshidian decomposition for pricing European energy commodity swaptions
Cutting edge: Marketing of renewable energy in the German market
Marketing of renewable energy - The German market: a case study
Applied risk management series: modelling spreads in energy markets
Implications for valuation and risk management of spread options
Multi-factor forward curve models for energy risk management
Applied risk management series – article two
Cutting edge: Valuation of spread commodity structures
Valuation of spread commodity structures in co-integrated futures markets
Cutting edge: valuing and dynamically hedging natural gas storage
Hedging the extrinsic value of a natural gas storage
Cutting edge: solutions for three-asset spread options
A Kirk’s and a Bachelier’s formula for three-asset spread options
Cutting edge – multi-scale volatility in commodity markets
This paper deals with volatility estimation in commodity markets. Piotr Grzywacz and Krzysztof Wolyniec note that energy commodities have many time (volatility) scales, which has dramatic implications for mean-reversion and volatility estimation. They…
Weather risk: gauging the exposure
There is now an array of instruments available to hedge weather exposure, but evaluating that exposure is far harder than quantifying standard exposures such as commodity price risk. Garth Renne and Shaun Hatch discuss approaches to analysing wind and…
Cutting edge: Pricing carbon-linked bonds
Within the framework of Phase II of the EU ETS, which has consecutive compliance periods that allow banking and borrowing, Daniel Bloch expresses the dynamics of Certified Emission Reductions as a function of European Union Allowances, and computes the…
Cutting edge technical: Carbon derivatives pricing
Carbon derivatives pricing: an arbitrageable market
Cutting Edge: Pure jump models for energy prices
Université de Lausanne’s Roberto Marfè investigates pure jump processes as modelling blocks for the distributions of energy returns under the pricing measure. An easy-to-implement option-implied approach is outlined, which circumvents most of the…
Energy structured deals: dynamic vs quasi-static hedging
Traditional pricing and hedging approaches often fail to work properly for complex energy structures due to market incompleteness, liquidity problems or unusual price dynamics. In this article, Stefano Fiorenzani suggests some specific adjustments that…