Technical papers/Market Risk
Looking forward to back testing
With increasing challenges to measure value-at-risk and meet high regulatory requirements, the focus has turned to back testing as a way of assuring models' adequacy. Carsten S Wehn proposes a new regime...
In questo articolo Attilio Meucci ricorre all'analisi di regressione per scomporre volatilità, value-at-risk (VaR) ed expected shortfall (ES) in combinazioni o aggregazioni arbitrarie di fattori di rischio,...
Value-at-risk is often criticised as not presenting a full picture of the risks a company faces. John Hull explains recent developments in risk management and derivatives pricing, and discusses the limitations...
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More Technical papers/Market Risk articles
Der indirekte Blick aus dem Sattel
Die Sattelpunktmethode hat sich als Instrument für die Portfolioanalyse etabliert. Im vorliegenden Artikel gehen Richard Martin und Roland Ordovás die wichtigsten Konzepte durch und zeigen, dass es für die Anwendung dieser Methode auf Modelle bedingter...
Cracking VAR with kernels
Value-at-risk analysis has become a key measure of portfolio risk in recent years, but how can we calculate the contribution of some portfolio component? Eduardo Epperlein and Alan Smillie show how kernel estimators can be used to provide a fast, accurate...
Forward thinking for backwardation
In certain settings it's reasonable to assume that the current futures price embodies the market expectations of the spot price. However, as Gary Dorris, Sean Burrows and Vena Kostroun explain, there are distinct situations when this assumption does not...
Maximum drawdown
The maximum loss from a market peak to a market nadir, commonly called the maximum drawdown (MDD), measures how sustained one’s losses can be. Malik Magdon-Ismail and Amir Atiya present analytical results relating the MDD to the mean return and the...
Estimating economic capital allocations for market and credit risk
Value-at-Risk (VAR) measures often are used as a basis for setting so-called"economic capital" or buffer stock measures of equity capitalization requirements.VAR measures do not account for the time value of money or theequilibrium required return premium...
Sensible and efficient capital allocation for credit portfolios
Michael Kalkbrener, Hans Lotter and Ludger Overbeck construct a new approach to economiccapital allocation, showing that three axioms uniquely determine a capital allocation scheme,and, more importantly, that any allocation satisfying the axioms is associated...
Calculating transfer risk using Monte Carlo
Marco van der Burgt constructs a model of emerging market transfer risk based on a country’s foreign exchange reserves that is combined with facility-dependent risk factors that determine counterparty exposure in the event of a moratorium. He then combines...
Using market and credit risk analytics to strengthen performance
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