Technical paper/Foreign exchange

A matter of principal

Developing term structure models can be tricky, as unknown factors and non-observable variables can affect futures prices. But principal components analysis is useful in tackling these problems. Here, Delphine Lautier uses PCA to pin down price movements…

A Merton approach to transfer risk

Transfer risk is the risk that debtors in a country are unable to ensure timely payments of foreign currency debt service due to transfer or exchange restrictions, or a general lack of foreign currency. Although this risk is not extensively addressed in…

Understanding Sam

The Samuelson Effect – backwardation in the term structure of forward volatility – can lead to valuation inaccuracies. In capturing the Samuelson Effect in energy derivatives valuation, analysts have tried both historical approaches and those that rely…

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