CVA models may miss half of true default risk

Benefits of initial margin also overstated, new research finds

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Hidden credit risk lies beneath the surface of the OTC market

Conventional means of calculating credit risk in an over-the-counter derivatives trade can understate the true exposure by up to half, new research has found – a consequence of simplifying assumptions about the way a default works. The researchers also cast doubt on the effectiveness of initial margin for derivatives trades, saying it will provide less protection than desired – that is, reducing overall exposure by only a factor of 10, rather than the expected